Variance Grid

See why a good edge can still feel uncomfortable.

This educational tool helps you understand how variance works in chance-based situations. You will not roll a 6 on every 6th dice roll. Sometimes you will roll three in a row. Sometimes you will go much longer than expected without one.

Understanding variance and setting realistic expectations can reduce stress whilst trading, especially when your results are temporarily out of line with your plan.

Random outcome grid

No run yet
Normal win Losing win Normal loss Winning loss Break-even

Can you actually sit through the variance?

The grid shows the maths. Your Trading Psychology Avatar shows how you are likely to react when the maths feels uncomfortable: chasing, freezing, forcing, over-adjusting, or sticking to the plan.

Learn to work WITH your psychology, not against it.

Discover your Trading Psychology Avatar
Educational disclaimer: This simulator is for education and illustration only. We cannot guarantee that it is bug free or suitable for any specific situation. Do not make financial decisions based on this tool, or anything you find on this website. Trading involves risk and you are responsible for your own decisions.